Group B of the Asia Cup 2025 is currently in a difficult situation.
Afghanistan, which began their campaign with a victory against Hong Kong, is now in a do-or-die situation following a close setback to Bangladesh. Their final group-stage match against Sri Lanka on Thursday, September 18, in Abu Dhabi, will determine not just their fate but also Bangladesh’s destiny.
Afghanistan dominated Hong Kong, winning by 94 runs. That win gained them two points and significantly increased their net run rate (NRR), which is presently positive 2.150. However, in their second match against Bangladesh, chasing 155, the Rashid Khan-led team displayed flashes of brilliance. Azmatullah Omarzai’s 30 got them home, but Mustafizur Rahman and Taskin Ahmed’s death bowling limited the squad to 146, giving the Litton Das-led team an eight-run victory.
Afghanistan now has only two points from two games, making their final match against Sri Lanka a must-win. On the other hand, Bangladesh has completed all three games, winning two and losing one. Meanwhile, Hong Kong has already been eliminated, leaving Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh competing for two Super Four slots.
Qualification scenarios
Scenario 1: If Sri Lanka wins
If Sri Lanka defeats Afghanistan by any margin, the former will finish with six points and top the group, while Bangladesh will qualify as the second team with four points despite their poor NRR. With that, Afghanistan will be eliminated with just two points.
Scenario 2: Afghanistan wins
If Afghanistan beats Sri Lanka, the group will see a three-way tie with all three teams finishing on four points. In that case, net run rate becomes the deciding factor. Afghanistan, with the best NRR already, any margin of victory will strengthen its position, and a win guarantees its passage to the Super Four.
Notably, Sri Lanka, despite a loss, their healthy NRR puts them on the brink of qualifying unless the defeat is massive. If Afghanistan wins by 70+ runs, or chases down the target with 50+ balls to spare, Sri Lanka’s NRR could dip below Bangladesh’s, leading to their elimination.
Furthermore, Bangladesh is in the weakest position. For them to advance, Afghanistan must not only beat Sri Lanka but do so by a huge margin. Only then can Sri Lanka’s NRR fall below negative 0.270, leading to Bangladesh sneaking into the Super Four.
India
