IPL 2025 Qualification Scenarios: How can CSK still qualify for playoffs after loss against SRH?

The Chennai Super Kings (CSK) were expected to dominate the league before the current Indian Premier League season began, especially given the type of massive auction they held before the season began. They entered the 18th edition of the prestigious T20 event as one of the most formidable teams on paper.

But the 2025 Indian Premier League has turned out entirely differently than everyone had expected. So far this season, the five-time winners have only managed to win two of their nine games. Their predicament has worsened as they lost by five wickets against runners-up Sunrisers Hyderabad at the MA Chidambaram Stadium.

According to the points table, CSK is at the bottom as of April 26. After nine games, they have, predictably, the lowest net run rate (-1.302) of any club. With 16 seasons under their belt, the Men in Yellow have advanced to the postseason 12 times. The basic prerequisites that clubs must meet in order to guarantee postseason qualification, the team’s remaining games, and potential routes that CSK could still take to finish in the top four in the league are shown below.

Basic Requirements for Playoff Qualification

The IPL has strictly adhered to a 10-team format since 2022. Since then, the following trends have been observed:

• 16 points (8 wins): Virtually through to the playoff phase.
• 14 points (7 wins): Still a likelihood to make it through. However, that depends on NRR in addition to how other results pan out (example: RCB in 2024).
• 12 points (6 wins): Quite uncommon. Only once has a team with a 12-point tally made it through to the playoffs (SRH in 2019).

CSK’s next matches

The MS Dhoni-led side has a total of five games ahead of them. The fixture list is as follows:

• vs PBKS: Chennai, April 30, 7:30 pm
• vs RCB: Bengaluru, May 3, 7:30 pm
• vs KKR: Kolkata, May 7, 7:30 pm
• vs RR: Chennai, May 12, 7:30 pm
• vs GT: Ahmedabad, May 18, 3:30 pm

Qualification Scenarios

• Have to win all five of their remaining fixtures

In the case of CSK emerging victorious in their remaining games:

Total Wins: 2 (current) + 5 = 7

Total Points: 4 (current) + 10 = 14

• Important for significant enhancement of NRR

Other than getting to the 14-point mark, it is crucial for CSK to boost their NRR to a comparatively bettter number. This is due to there being a genuine possibility of other teams obtaining 14 points.

CSK will probably have to win all their games by a healthy margin (say a minimum of 30-40 runs or with four-five overs in the bank) for their NRR to elevate to a positive-valued figure.

• Will have to depend on other teams’ results 

Not only will CSK need to maintain a spotless run, but they will also have to bank on other teams to do them a favour. Teams like MI, PBKS, and LSG would have to lose their games to keep their final points tally to 14 or below.

The best-case scenario would be for various teams to end up on 12 points, which would ensure CSK to secure the fourth spot after getting to 14 points at the end of the league phase.

CSK will gain from MI, PBKS, and LSG losing at least two-three of their remaining games.

Ahead of Match 44, GT, DC, and RCB have already established themselves quite significantly with each of the teams on 12 points apiece. Them losing won’t affect CSK’s chances a lot.

They would also have to hope sides like KKR, SRH, and RR engineer a massive upset against teams like MI, PBKS, and LSG.

Note: If CSK lose any of their remaining games from this point, it would mean their mathematical elimination from the competition.