IPL 2025 Qualification Scenarios: How can KKR still qualify for playoffs after loss to GT?

The Kolkata Knight Riders’ recent 39-run loss to Gujarat Titans at Eden Gardens on Monday dealt a serious blow to their aspirations of making the playoffs in the current Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025. This was KKR’s fifth defeat in eight games, and with just six points, they now sit seventh in the standings. They are in a must-win scenario with six games remaining if they want to qualify.

When KKR was chasing 199, their batting order fell apart once more. A dismal setback resulted from the inability of any other hitters to provide the necessary support, even though captain Ajinkya Rahane scored 50 off 36 balls. At No. 9, young Angkrish Raghuvanshi came in with a 27* from just 13 balls, and Andre Russell was also kept back for too long. The goal was difficult to meet since by the time they got there, the asking rate had risen to 14.

Sai Sudharsan’s 52 and Shubman Gill’s 90 earlier helped GT to a comfortable 198/3. Before Jos Buttler’s late appearance, their top order held the innings together despite a sluggish powerplay. A decline to +0.212 was also seen in KKR’s net run rate. In order to be in the running for a top-four finish, KKR must reduce their margin of error. Their next game is against Punjab Kings on April 26.

Basic Requirements for Playoff Qualification

The IPL has strictly followed a 10-team format since 2022. Since then, the following trends have been observed:

• 16 points (8 wins): Virtually through to the playoffs.
• 14 points (7 wins): Still a chance to make it to the top four. However, that depends on the NRR as well as how other results pan out (for example, RCB in 2024).
• 12 points (6 wins): Quite rare. Only once has a team with 12 points made it through to the playoffs (SRH in IPL 2019).

Remaining Matches for KKR

The Shah Rukh Khan-owned side has a total of six games remaining. The fixture list is as follows:

• vs PBKS: Kolkata, April 26, 7:30 pm
• vs DC: Delhi, April 29, 7:30 pm
• vs RR: Kolkata, May 4, 3:30 pm
• vs CSK: Kolkata, May 7, 7:30 pm
• vs SRH: Hyderabad, May 10, 7:30 pm
• vs RCB: Bengaluru, May 17, 7:30 pm

Qualification Scenarios

Scenario 1: KKR wins all six of their remaining games

Total Wins: 3 (current) + 6 = 9

Total Points: 6 (current) + 12 = 18

Outcome: Traditionally, 18 points is a safe position for any team hoping to confirm their playoffs berth. Notably, KKR has a positive NRR despite five losses and will be hoping to build on that going forward.

Scenario 2: KKR win five out of their remaining six games

Total Wins: 3 (current) + 5 = 8

Total Points: 6 (current) + 10 = 16

Outcome: A 16-point finish will still provide a good chance to secure a top-four finish. However, with six teams already above them in the tally, five wins will only help them, depending on their improved net run rate and other teams’ results.

Scenario 3: KKR win four out of their remaining six games

Total Wins: 3 (current) + 4 = 7

Total Points: 6 (current) + 8 = 14

Outcome: If the defending champions manage to win four of their remaining six matches, they’ll finish with 14 points. While that might look like a decent number, it likely won’t be enough to guarantee a playoff spot this season. The side will be out of the race if this situation occurs, and will remain mathematically alive in the competition. The main challenge will be to not only win but win with a good margin to boost their NRR.

Scenario 4: KKR win three out of their remaining six games

Total Wins: 3 (current) + 3 = 6

Total Points: 6 (current) + 6 = 12

Outcome: The probability of finishing in the fourth position with six wins this season is nil. With the top six teams already having 8 or above points under their belt, KKR will have no chance of making it to the cut. However, they can spoil the party for a few of the franchises who are looking to clinch the top-four spot.