Champions Trophy 2025: Pakistan’s qualification scenarios after loss to India

Pakistan’s hopes of qualifying were made more difficult on February 23 as they lost to India by six wickets in Match 5 of the current Champions Trophy 2025 at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium. Prior to the event, the highly anticipated match had already generated a lot of buzz, and this excitement only increased following the two teams’ individual opening matches.

Although India defeated Bangladesh by a commanding six-wicket margin, Pakistan, who are hosting their first ICC event in 29 years, did not have a happy start to the competition. New Zealand convincingly outscored them by 60 runs. Because of such outcome, Pakistan had to win the current match.

Pakistan’s qualification scenarios if they lose to India:

Scenario 1: NZ lose against BAN, PAK win against BAN, IND lose against NZ

• Pakistan and Bangladesh will have two points each.
• India and New Zealand will qualify with four points.

Scenario 2: NZ lose against BAN, PAK win against BAN, IND win against NZ

• Pakistan, Bangladesh, and New Zealand will be tied at two points each.
• India will qualify with six points.
• Pakistan must have a better net run rate than both Bangladesh and New Zealand to qualify.

Scenario 3: NZ win against BAN, PAK win against BAN, IND lose against NZ

• Pakistan will have two points.
• Bangladesh will finish winless.
• New Zealand will top the group with six points, qualifying alongside India.

Scenario 4: NZ win against BAN, PAK win against BAN, IND win against NZ

• Pakistan will have two points.
• Bangladesh will finish without a win.
• India and New Zealand will qualify.

Pakistan’s must-win situation

Hence, it is quite clear that the Indo-Pak game is a do-or-die for Pakistan to stay alive in the tournament.