What is the probability of Virat Kohli score 100 centuries by ODI World Cup in 2027?

After Indian batting mainstay Virat Kohli broke the record of 49 ODI tonnes set by the great Sachin Tendulkar with his 50th ODI century against New Zealand at the 2023 ODI World Cup in Mumbai, many wondered if he would reach 100 international hundreds before retiring.

With 30 Tests, 51 ODIs, and one T20I, Virat Kohli current international total is 82 tonnes.

In June 2024, after India won the T20 World Cup, he declared his retirement from T20Is. Ahead of India’s trip to England in May 2025, the Delhi native just put up his boots from Test cricket. As a result, he has just one format to pursue the challenging milestone of 100 centuries.

There is not much time left for him to reach 19 hundreds, since the 2027 ODI World Cup in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Namibia may be his final appearance in international cricket. With a strike rate of 88.20, he has played 37 games in four World Cups (2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023) and amassed 1795 runs at an average of 59.83, including five hundreds and 12 fifties.

He broke the previous record held by Tendulkar and became the fastest player to reach 14,000 ODI runs at the ICC Champions Trophy 2025. There are still several milestones that Kohli has to break, including the 16,000 ODI runs that are within reach and the potential to surpass Kumar Sangakkara in terms of overall international runs.

Currently, India has 27 ODI matches planned till December 2026. In addition, they are expected to participate in nine possible World Cup group stage matches, bringing their total to 36. The Men in Blue can play more ODIs before the 2027 World Cup, which is noteworthy. If they make it to the semifinals and finals, the total will be substantial.

With a century every 1.94 innings, Kohli has to score 19 more centuries to break the record. Considering his current ODI century rate of 0.1706 per innings, this is a difficult job. If all other factors stay the same and he plays every match, the mathematical likelihood of his scoring exactly 19 hundreds in 36 matches is around 1 in 14.7 million, or 0.1706% every match.

It is unheard of to score a century every other game, even when wearing a purple patch. It’s interesting to note that in 35 straight ODI innings, Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli have scored the most hundreds (11). It is statistically unlikely that the contemporary great will score 19 more hundreds in at least 36 games. The odds are still somewhat open, though, if India plays more ODIs before the 2027 World Cup or if Kohli keeps improving.

Should he succeed, Sachin’s long-standing record will be broken, and the right-handed batter will surpass Sangakkara to take second place on the all-time runs list across formats.